NFL Quick Reference
- Always buy off 3 when possible (up to -135)
- Buy through 7 up to -125
- Half points on totals matter less than spreads
- The 3 is worth about 15.5% of outcomes
- The 7 is worth about 9.4% of outcomes
Spread Margins
How often games land on each margin. Higher frequency = more valuable to cross.
| Number | Frequency | Significance | Visual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 15.5% | Critical |
|
| 7 | 9.4% | Critical |
|
| 10 | 6.2% | High |
|
| 6 | 5.8% | High |
|
| 14 | 5.5% | High |
|
| 4 | 4.8% | High |
|
| 17 | 3.8% | Moderate |
|
| 2 | 3.2% | Moderate |
|
| 21 | 3.2% | Moderate |
|
| 5 | 3.1% | Moderate |
|
| 13 | 2.8% | Moderate |
|
| 8 | 2.5% | Moderate |
|
| 20 | 2.3% | Moderate |
|
| 1 | 2.3% | Moderate |
|
| 11 | 2.1% | Moderate |
|
| 16 | 2.1% | Moderate |
|
| 9 | 1.9% | Low |
|
| 12 | 1.8% | Low |
|
| 18 | 1.5% | Low |
|
| 15 | 1.2% | Low |
|
| 19 | 1.1% | Low |
|
Total Margins
How often total scores land on each number.
| Total | Frequency | Visual |
|---|---|---|
| 44 | 4.5% |
|
| 47 | 4.2% |
|
| 43 | 4.1% |
|
| 51 | 4.0% |
|
| 45 | 3.9% |
|
| 41 | 3.8% |
|
| 48 | 3.8% |
|
| 46 | 3.6% |
|
| 40 | 3.5% |
|
| 49 | 3.5% |
|
| 42 | 3.2% |
|
| 50 | 3.2% |
|
| 52 | 3.1% |
|
| 53 | 2.8% |
|
| 37 | 2.8% |
|
| 54 | 2.5% |
|
| 38 | 2.5% |
|
| 39 | 2.3% |
|
| 55 | 2.2% |
|