NBA Quick Reference
- NBA has no real "key numbers"
- Single-digit margins are all similar frequency
- Half-point value is lower than NFL
- Standard -10 juice buy is usually neutral
- Focus more on line shopping than half points
Spread Margins
How often games land on each margin. Higher frequency = more valuable to cross.
| Number | Frequency | Significance | Visual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4.9% | High |
|
| 3 | 4.8% | High |
|
| 4 | 4.6% | High |
|
| 2 | 4.5% | High |
|
| 7 | 4.5% | High |
|
| 6 | 4.3% | High |
|
| 1 | 4.2% | High |
|
| 8 | 4.1% | High |
|
| 10 | 4.0% | High |
|
| 9 | 3.8% | Moderate |
|
| 12 | 3.6% | Moderate |
|
| 11 | 3.5% | Moderate |
|
| 13 | 3.2% | Moderate |
|
| 14 | 3.0% | Moderate |
|
| 15 | 2.8% | Moderate |
|
| 16 | 2.5% | Moderate |
|
| 17 | 2.3% | Moderate |
|
| 18 | 2.1% | Moderate |
|
| 19 | 1.9% | Low |
|
| 20 | 1.8% | Low |
|
Total Margins
How often total scores land on each number.
| Total | Frequency | Visual |
|---|---|---|
| 222 | 3.4% |
|
| 224 | 3.3% |
|
| 220 | 3.2% |
|
| 226 | 3.1% |
|
| 218 | 3.0% |
|
| 228 | 2.9% |
|
| 216 | 2.8% |
|
| 230 | 2.7% |
|
| 214 | 2.5% |
|
| 232 | 2.4% |
|
| 212 | 2.3% |
|
| 234 | 2.2% |
|
| 210 | 2.1% |
|
| 236 | 2.0% |
|