Half-Point Calculator

Know when buying or selling points is +EV

Calculator

What are Key Numbers?

In sports betting, key numbers are final margins that occur more frequently than others. In NFL, games disproportionately land on 3 (field goal) and 7 (touchdown). Buying half points to cross these numbers can be highly +EV.

NFL Critical Numbers
3
~15.5% of games
7
~9.4% of games
10
~6.2% of games
NBA Key Numbers
NBA has no true key numbers. Margins are more evenly distributed. Half-point buying is less valuable than in NFL.

EV Calculator

Calculate real-time EV of buying or selling half points

Key Numbers

Historical analysis of game margins by number

EV Tables

Pre-calculated break-even juice for common scenarios

🏈 NFL Quick Reference

  • Always buy off 3 when possible (up to -135)
  • Buy through 7 up to -125
  • Half points on totals matter less than spreads
  • The 3 is worth about 15.5% of outcomes
  • The 7 is worth about 9.4% of outcomes

🏀 NBA Quick Reference

  • NBA has no real "key numbers"
  • Single-digit margins are all similar frequency
  • Half-point value is lower than NFL
  • Standard -10 juice buy is usually neutral
  • Focus more on line shopping than half points

How to Use This Tool

1. Check the Line

Is your spread near a key number? (3, 7, 10, 14 for NFL)

2. Check the Cost

What juice are they charging to move the line? (usually -10 to -20 per half point)

3. Calculate EV

Use the calculator to see if the cost is less than the value of crossing that number