How to Read These Tables
The Break-Even Juice shows the maximum juice where buying is still +EV. If the book charges less than this, buying is profitable.
BUY (At -110)
Break-even ≥ -110. Profitable at standard juice.
Always Buy
Break-even -120 or better. Worth it almost always.
Usually Buy
Break-even -130 to -120. Worth it at most books.
Sometimes Buy
Break-even worse than -130. Only if you get a discount.
The Math: Buy if juice cost < push probability value.
Example: Buying -3 → -3.5 at -110 juice (10¢ cost). If push probability on 3 is 8%, and you bet $100, push saves you ~$8.
Break-even is when cost = savings.
BUY Spread Half-Points
| Move | Verdict @-110 | Break-Even Juice | Recommendation | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 → 3.0 | SKIP | -135 | Sometimes Buy | Crossing the 3 - Critical buy |
| 3.0 → 3.5 | SKIP | -165 | Rarely Buy | Moving off 3 - Very valuable |
| 3.5 → 4.0 | BUY | -105 | Always Buy | Standard half point - Low value |
| 4.5 → 5.0 | BUY | -105 | Always Buy | Standard half point - Low value |
| 5.5 → 6.0 | BUY | -110 | Always Buy | Approaching 6 |
| 6.5 → 7.0 | SKIP | -125 | Usually Buy | Crossing the 7 - Important |
| 7.0 → 7.5 | SKIP | -145 | Rarely Buy | Moving off 7 - Valuable |
| 7.5 → 8.0 | BUY | -105 | Always Buy | Standard half point |
| 8.5 → 9.0 | BUY | -105 | Always Buy | Standard half point |
| 9.5 → 10.0 | SKIP | -115 | Always Buy | Crossing the 10 |
| 10.0 → 10.5 | SKIP | -120 | Always Buy | Moving off 10 |
| 13.5 → 14.0 | SKIP | -115 | Always Buy | Crossing the 14 |
| 14.0 → 14.5 | SKIP | -120 | Always Buy | Moving off 14 |
SELL Spread Half-Points (Caution)
Selling half-points gives you better juice but worse numbers. Generally not recommended.
| Move | Min Juice Needed | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 → 2.5 | -110 | Moving off 3 - Risky |
| 3.5 → 3.0 | -105 | Moving to 3 - Avoid |
| 7.0 → 6.5 | -110 | Moving off 7 - Risky |
| 7.5 → 7.0 | -105 | Moving to 7 - Avoid |
BUY Total Half-Points
| Move | Verdict @-110 | Break-Even Juice | Recommendation | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40.5 → 41.0 | BUY | -110 | Always Buy | Common total region |
| 41.5 → 42.0 | BUY | -110 | Always Buy | Common total region |
| 42.5 → 43.0 | SKIP | -112 | Always Buy | Higher frequency zone |
| 43.5 → 44.0 | SKIP | -115 | Always Buy | High frequency - 44 common |
| 44.5 → 45.0 | BUY | -110 | Always Buy | Common total |
| 45.5 → 46.0 | BUY | -110 | Always Buy | Common total region |
| 46.5 → 47.0 | SKIP | -112 | Always Buy | Higher frequency zone |
| 47.5 → 48.0 | BUY | -110 | Always Buy | Common total |
| 48.5 → 49.0 | BUY | -108 | Always Buy | Standard |
| 49.5 → 50.0 | BUY | -108 | Always Buy | Standard |
| 50.5 → 51.0 | BUY | -110 | Always Buy | Common 51 total |