How to Read These Tables
The Break-Even Juice shows the maximum juice where buying is still +EV. If the book charges less than this, buying is profitable.
BUY (At -110)
Break-even ≥ -110. Profitable at standard juice.
Always Buy
Break-even -120 or better. Worth it almost always.
Usually Buy
Break-even -130 to -120. Worth it at most books.
Sometimes Buy
Break-even worse than -130. Only if you get a discount.
The Math: Buy if juice cost < push probability value.
Example: Buying -3 → -3.5 at -110 juice (10¢ cost). If push probability on 3 is 8%, and you bet $100, push saves you ~$8.
Break-even is when cost = savings.
BUY Spread Half-Points
| Move | Verdict @-110 | Break-Even Juice | Recommendation | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 → 2.0 | BUY | -110 | Always Buy | Low key number region |
| 2.5 → 3.0 | BUY | -110 | Always Buy | Low key number region |
| 3.5 → 4.0 | BUY | -108 | Always Buy | Low key number region |
| 4.5 → 5.0 | BUY | -108 | Always Buy | Moderate value |
| 5.5 → 6.0 | BUY | -108 | Always Buy | Moderate value |
| 6.5 → 7.0 | BUY | -110 | Always Buy | Slightly higher frequency |
| 7.5 → 8.0 | BUY | -108 | Always Buy | Standard |
| 8.5 → 9.0 | BUY | -108 | Always Buy | Standard |
| 9.5 → 10.0 | BUY | -108 | Always Buy | Standard |