CFB Key Numbers

Historical margin frequency analysis

CFB Quick Reference

  • Similar to NFL but more variance due to skill gaps
  • Buy through 3 and 7 when available
  • Watch for large spreads (14+) which are more common in CFB
  • The 3 is worth about 11.5% of outcomes
  • The 7 is worth about 8.2% of outcomes

Spread Margins

How often games land on each margin. Higher frequency = more valuable to cross.

Number Frequency Significance Visual
3 12.8% Critical
7 8.5% Critical
10 5.8% High
6 5.2% High
14 5.0% High
4 4.5% High
17 3.5% Moderate
5 3.2% Moderate
2 3.0% Moderate
21 3.0% Moderate
8 2.8% Moderate
28 2.5% Moderate
1 2.5% Moderate
13 2.5% Moderate
11 2.2% Moderate
24 2.2% Moderate
20 2.1% Moderate
9 2.1% Moderate
16 2.0% Moderate
12 1.9% Low
18 1.6% Low
15 1.4% Low
19 1.2% Low

Total Margins

How often total scores land on each number.

Total Frequency Visual
51 4.2%
48 4.0%
55 3.9%
47 3.8%
52 3.8%
49 3.6%
58 3.6%
45 3.5%
54 3.5%
56 3.4%
44 3.2%
59 3.2%
61 3.0%
42 2.8%
62 2.8%