Score Prediction Analytics
Team total betting performance based on score prediction edges
Profitable Strategies
Bet team total over/under based on prediction edge direction
| Strategy | Edge Range | Bets | Record | Win% | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAB 2-3 Point Edge NCAAB | 2-3 pt edge | 27 | 21-6 | 77.8% | +$1,309 | +48.5% |
| All Sports 5+ Point Edge | 5-∞ pt edge | 148 | 93-55 | 62.8% | +$2,955 | +20.0% |
| NCAAB 5+ Point Edge NCAAB | 5-∞ pt edge | 85 | 51-34 | 60% | +$1,236 | +14.5% |
Avoid These
These edge ranges have historically lost money
| Strategy | Edge Range | Bets | Record | Win% | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAB 3-5 Point Edge NCAAB | 3-5 pt edge | 35 | 13-22 | 37.1% | -$1,018 | -29.1% |
| All Sports 3-5 Point Edge | 3-5 pt edge | 37 | 15-22 | 40.5% | -$836 | -22.6% |
| NBA Team Totals NBA | 0-∞ pt edge | 1096 | 535-561 | 48.8% | -$7,463 | -6.8% |
Overall Summary
3,241
Predictions Graded
8.2
Avg Error (pts)
3360
Team Total Bets
1746-1614
Record
$2,671
Total P&L
-0.8%
ROI
Performance by Sport
| Sport | Predictions | Bets | Record | Win% | Avg Error | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAB | 2169 | 2127 | 1189-938 | 55.9% | 8.3 pts | +$14,292 | +6.7% |
| NHL | 20 | 0 | 0-0 | 0% | 2.7 pts | +$0 | +0.0% |
| NCAAF | 1 | 2 | 1-1 | 50% | 34.3 pts | $9 | -4.5% |
| NBA | 926 | 1096 | 535-561 | 48.8% | 7.7 pts | $7,463 | -6.8% |
| NFL | 125 | 135 | 21-114 | 15.6% | 9.7 pts | $9,491 | -70.3% |
Performance by Edge Size NFL
Edge = |Predicted Score - Book Team Total Line|
| Edge Range | Bets | Record | Win% | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 pts | 98 | 21-77 | 21.4% | $5,791 | -59.1% |
| 1-2 pts | 7 | 0-7 | 0% | $700 | -100.0% |
| 2-3 pts | 30 | 0-30 | 0% | $3,000 | -100.0% |
Prediction Accuracy Distribution NFL
How often predictions are within X points of actual scores
1.6%
Within 3 pts
14.8%
Within 5 pts
25.6%
Within 7 pts
64.8%
Within 10 pts
86.8%
Within 15 pts
Recent Graded Predictions
| Game | Predicted | Actual | Home Edge | Away Edge | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Creighton Bluejays @ Providence Friars
NCAAB • Jan 16
|
82-82 | 88-93 | - | - | - |
|
Toledo Rockets @ Kent State Golden Flashes
NCAAB • Jan 16
|
84-88 | 84-87 | - | - | - |
|
Creighton Bluejays @ Providence Friars
NCAAB • Jan 16
|
82-82 | 88-93 | - | - | - |
|
Toledo Rockets @ Kent State Golden Flashes
NCAAB • Jan 16
|
84-88 | 84-87 | - | - | - |
|
Creighton Bluejays @ Providence Friars
NCAAB • Jan 16
|
82-82 | 88-93 | - | - | - |
|
Toledo Rockets @ Kent State Golden Flashes
NCAAB • Jan 16
|
84-88 | 84-87 | - | - | - |
|
Creighton Bluejays @ Providence Friars
NCAAB • Jan 16
|
82-82 | 88-93 | - | - | - |
|
Toledo Rockets @ Kent State Golden Flashes
NCAAB • Jan 16
|
84-88 | 84-87 | - | - | - |
|
Creighton Bluejays @ Providence Friars
NCAAB • Jan 16
|
82-82 | 88-93 | - | - | - |
|
Toledo Rockets @ Kent State Golden Flashes
NCAAB • Jan 16
|
84-88 | 84-87 | - | - | - |
|
Creighton Bluejays @ Providence Friars
NCAAB • Jan 16
|
82-82 | 88-93 | - | - | - |
|
Toledo Rockets @ Kent State Golden Flashes
NCAAB • Jan 16
|
84-88 | 84-87 | - | - | - |
|
Creighton Bluejays @ Providence Friars
NCAAB • Jan 16
|
82-82 | 88-93 | - | - | - |
|
Toledo Rockets @ Kent State Golden Flashes
NCAAB • Jan 16
|
84-88 | 84-87 | - | - | - |
|
Creighton Bluejays @ Providence Friars
NCAAB • Jan 16
|
82-82 | 88-93 | - | - | - |
Key Takeaways
- 1. NCAAB team totals with 5+ point edges are highly profitable: 60% win rate, +14.5% ROI.
- 2. All sports with 5+ point edges win at 57% for +8.4% ROI.
- X Avoid 3-5 point edges - they win only 40% for -22.6% ROI.
- X Avoid NBA team totals - -6.5% ROI overall.
- → Strategy: Only bet NCAAB team totals when prediction edge is 5+ points in either direction.