Score Prediction Analytics
Team total betting performance based on score prediction edges
Profitable Strategies
Bet team total over/under based on prediction edge direction
| Strategy | Edge Range | Bets | Record | Win% | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAB 2-3 Point Edge NCAAB | 2-3 pt edge | 21 | 15-6 | 71.4% | +$764 | +36.4% |
| All Sports 5+ Point Edge | 5-∞ pt edge | 138 | 83-55 | 60.1% | +$2,046 | +14.8% |
| NCAAB 5+ Point Edge NCAAB | 5-∞ pt edge | 85 | 51-34 | 60% | +$1,236 | +14.5% |
Avoid These
These edge ranges have historically lost money
| Strategy | Edge Range | Bets | Record | Win% | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAB 3-5 Point Edge NCAAB | 3-5 pt edge | 35 | 13-22 | 37.1% | -$1,018 | -29.1% |
| All Sports 3-5 Point Edge | 3-5 pt edge | 37 | 15-22 | 40.5% | -$836 | -22.6% |
| NBA Team Totals NBA | 0-∞ pt edge | 539 | 274-265 | 50.8% | -$1,591 | -3.0% |
Overall Summary
1,888
Predictions Graded
8.9
Avg Error (pts)
1918
Team Total Bets
1004-914
Record
$126
Total P&L
-0.1%
ROI
Performance by Sport
| Sport | Predictions | Bets | Record | Win% | Avg Error | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAB | 1289 | 1242 | 708-534 | 57% | 8.8 pts | +$10,964 | +8.8% |
| NHL | 20 | 0 | 0-0 | 0% | 2.7 pts | +$0 | +0.0% |
| NCAAF | 1 | 2 | 1-1 | 50% | 34.3 pts | $9 | -4.5% |
| NBA | 453 | 539 | 274-265 | 50.8% | 9.2 pts | $1,591 | -3.0% |
| NFL | 125 | 135 | 21-114 | 15.6% | 9.7 pts | $9,491 | -70.3% |
Performance by Edge Size
Edge = |Predicted Score - Book Team Total Line|
| Edge Range | Bets | Record | Win% | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 pts | 1407 | 740-667 | 52.6% | +$573 | +0.4% |
| 1-2 pts | 276 | 146-130 | 52.9% | +$273 | +1.0% |
| 2-3 pts | 60 | 20-40 | 33.3% | $2,182 | -36.4% |
| 3-5 pts | 37 | 15-22 | 40.5% | $836 | -22.6% |
| 5+ pts | 138 | 83-55 | 60.1% | +$2,046 | +14.8% |
Prediction Accuracy Distribution
How often predictions are within X points of actual scores
24.8%
Within 3 pts
35.9%
Within 5 pts
46.2%
Within 7 pts
61.9%
Within 10 pts
83.2%
Within 15 pts
Recent Graded Predictions
| Game | Predicted | Actual | Home Edge | Away Edge | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Wisconsin Badgers @ Minnesota Golden Gophers
NCAAB • Jan 13
|
74-72 | 78-75 | -0.5 | +1.5 | $9 |
|
Virginia Cavaliers @ Louisville Cardinals
NCAAB • Jan 13
|
76-79 | 79-70 | -0.5 | +0.0 | +$91 |
|
Central Michigan Chippewas @ Miami Ohio
NCAAB • Jan 13
|
71-86 | 61-100 | -0.2 | +0.3 | $200 |
|
Indiana Hoosiers @ Michigan State Spartans
NCAAB • Jan 13
|
67-74 | 60-81 | - | - | - |
|
Ohio Bobcats @ Toledo Rockets
NCAAB • Jan 13
|
78-81 | 85-101 | - | - | - |
|
Boston College Eagles @ Clemson Tigers
NCAAB • Jan 13
|
57-74 | 50-74 | - | - | - |
|
Dayton Flyers @ Duquesne Dukes
NCAAB • Jan 13
|
79-74 | 71-65 | - | - | - |
|
Central Michigan Chippewas @ Miami Ohio
NCAAB • Jan 13
|
69-86 | 61-100 | - | - | - |
|
Virginia Cavaliers @ Louisville Cardinals
NCAAB • Jan 13
|
76-80 | 79-70 | - | - | - |
|
Wisconsin Badgers @ Minnesota Golden Gophers
NCAAB • Jan 13
|
74-71 | 78-75 | - | - | - |
|
Texas A&M Aggies @ Tennessee Volunteers
NCAAB • Jan 13
|
75-84 | 82-87 | - | - | - |
|
George Mason Patriots @ Loyola Chicago Ramblers
NCAAB • Jan 13
|
75-66 | 82-74 | - | - | - |
|
Miami Hurricanes @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
NCAAB • Jan 13
|
75-71 | 81-69 | - | - | - |
|
Ball State Cardinals @ Akron Zips
NCAAB • Jan 13
|
67-88 | 77-87 | - | - | - |
|
Massachusetts Minutemen @ Western Michigan Broncos
NCAAB • Jan 13
|
82-79 | 85-82 | - | - | - |
Key Takeaways
- 1. NCAAB team totals with 5+ point edges are highly profitable: 60% win rate, +14.5% ROI.
- 2. All sports with 5+ point edges win at 57% for +8.4% ROI.
- X Avoid 3-5 point edges - they win only 40% for -22.6% ROI.
- X Avoid NBA team totals - -6.5% ROI overall.
- → Strategy: Only bet NCAAB team totals when prediction edge is 5+ points in either direction.